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Design scenarios that mirror real transmission channels: inflation spikes, energy shocks, supply-chain fractures, and policy missteps. Map them to rates, spreads, equities, and commodities so your results feel relevant, credible, and decision-ready.
Tail Risk Analytics: Beyond VaR with Expected Shortfall
Expected Shortfall focuses on the average of worst outcomes, discouraging tail risk gaming. It pushes hedges and limits toward true protection rather than cosmetic compliance with narrow quantiles.
Tail Risk Analytics: Beyond VaR with Expected Shortfall
EVT helps estimate tail heaviness when data is scarce and extremes dominate. Calibrate thresholds carefully, validate stability across windows, and monitor parameter drift during regime changes and liquidity droughts.
Feature Engineering with Alternative Data
Blend traditional financials with network signals, payment rhythms, and sector-specific indicators. Respect privacy and bias controls while extracting leading signals of distress before financial statements whisper trouble.
Use SHAP values, monotonic constraints, and partial dependence checks to preserve economic intuition. Explain to credit committees why drivers matter, not just how the model statistically fits historic outcomes.
Bridge regulatory ratios to operational cash ladders. Model roll-offs, encumbrance, and haircut dynamics to anticipate squeezes, not merely report them after they arrive uninvited at 4 p.m.
Liquidity and Intraday Risk Analytics
Estimate executable size using order-book proxies, dark pool signals, and volatility-adjusted spreads. Stress test slippage during correlated sell-offs when everyone reaches for the same exit at once.
Counterparty Credit Risk and the XVA Stack
Measure exposure profiles with netting, collateral, and thresholds. Capture wrong-way risk when exposure grows as counterparty quality deteriorates, preventing deceptive valuations during calm markets.
Model Risk Management and Validation Frameworks
Trace every assumption to empirical evidence. Maintain data lineage maps, monitor drift, and trigger reviews when relationships break, not after losses accumulate and post-mortems feel inevitable.